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Tom Vilhauer Arrives Hawaii [T minus Aloha, Departure Planning]

goldenstate

Sustaining Member
Blogs Author
After a couple of years of work and practice, the date loometh. June 12-14 has been the target window for a departure for my San Francisco to Hawaii trip for many months. The family is flying over to meet me in early July, tickets purchased and hotel room reserved, extortionately.

Covid finally came for my family two weeks ago. I did not test positive at any point, but felt bad and am vaccinated and I suspect I never reached the viral load sufficient to test postively. I really hope I don't come down with a case at the last moment.

The reliability of the weather forecast improves as a given date approaches. At present it looks like Sunday the 12th will welcome a blob of ugly wind off the coast of the San Francisco Bay, with winds gusting to 50kts. Unkind to an earnest novice, at the very least.

I've signed up for the seemingly ubiquitous PredictWind + Iridium Go service that many YouTubers and bloggers use. I have the separate Offshore app they offer on my iPhone, iPad, and Macbook for redundancy. I have tested the downloads via satellite and it works well, though slowly by today's instant data standards. Here's a snapshot of how the wind mapping looks:

Screen Shot 2022-06-08 at 7.41.22 AM.jpg

There is a departure planning feature as well. One sets parameters for how fast his/her boat is and what conditions one wants to avoid. Then multiple scenarios can be tested against the projected weather data.

Screen Shot 2022-06-08 at 7.40.02 AM.jpg

In this case, the data is most useful (to me, anyway) presented as a table:

Screen Shot 2022-06-08 at 7.39.53 AM.jpg
The key take-away here is that if I leave on Friday (instead of Saturday/Sunday) I can hopefully avoid some nasty gusts bordering 40kts. I have done that before and think it would be a less than totally-cool way to start my trip.

The model has my boat moving faster than it will in real life. I set my max speed to 6 kts in the model, but it still thinks I will reach Hawaii in two weeks. I'm expecting 19-22 days instead.
 
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goldenstate

Sustaining Member
Blogs Author
Best of luck Tom! And to Brian too if he is going with you. Keep us posted on your progress and have a good time.
Thanks, Grant! Life intervened for Bryan, so this is back to being a solo mission for me.

My AIS should be visible on marinetraffic.com (SV Sure Shot). I feel like I am wading into dangerous territory ("If you want the god to laugh, tell him your plans.") but current schedule is Friday morning departure.
 

Teranodon

Member III

"Gentle be the breezes;
Calm be the waves;
And may all the elements
Respond with favor
To your wishes."
 

windblown

Member III
Fair winds! We look forward to following you and S/V Sure Shot,
and hearing great stories when you arrive safely.
 

jav317

Member III
Fair winds and calm seas to you! Looking forward to how our 1990 32-200 model likes the crossing or more accurately, how you like it!
 

Christian Williams

E381 - Los Angeles
Senior Moderator
Blogs Author

This is the trail being sent by Tom's Garmin InReach. (Link above)

Click on "View All Tracks" to expand the positions line ( I'm not really familiar with InReach).

As of today, June 21, he's at 28N and 144W, so he has about 800 nm to go. Oahu is about 22N, 158W.

He should be well into the Trades, probably seeing tropical clouds. it's getting warm, wind is from dead astern. In the coming week it will get hot, the rain squalls begin, as the Islands loom closer. He is likely feeling the end in sight, although keeping an eye peeled for hurricanes. Yet as progress becomes proven, so does the realization that 800 miles is a long, long way. It is easy to get there ahead of the boat, a phenomenon that results in the stoppage of time, leaving you suddenly aware of the reality at hand.

Vilhauer june 21 22.JPG
 
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Bepi

E27 Roxanne

This is the trail being sent by Tom's Garmin InReach. (Link above)

Click on "View More Tracks" to expand the positions line ( I'm not really familiar with InReach).

As of today, June 21, he's at 28N and 144W, so he has about 800 nm to go. Oahu is about 22N, 158W.

He should be well into the Trades, probably seeing tropical clouds. it's getting warm, wind is from dead astern. In the coming week it will get hot, the rain squalls begin, as the Islands loom closer. He is likely feeling the end in sight, although keeping an eye peeled for hurricanes. Yet as progress becomes proven, so does the realization that 800 miles is a long, long way. It is easy to get there ahead of the boat, a phenomenon that results in the stoppage of time, leaving you suddenly aware of the reality at hand.

View attachment 43332
Cheers.
 

Christian Williams

E381 - Los Angeles
Senior Moderator
Blogs Author
NOAA TS.JPG

This is really good news, and the earlier prediction is holding so far:

There is a 60% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 30% chance for near-normal activity, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

For the season as a whole, 2 to 4 tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones.

“This year we are predicting less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to normal seasons,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “The ongoing La Niña is likely to cause strong vertical wind shear making it more difficult for hurricanes to develop or move into the Central Pacific Ocean.”

"The Central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

"Check the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website throughout the season to stay on top of any watches and warnings....."
 

southofvictor

Member III
Blogs Author
Where do central Pacific hurricanes form? Do they start in the east (like the current TS Celia) and then make it all the way west to the central Pacific or do central Pacific storms usually start further west?
 
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