Hawaii and hurricanes

[N.A.]

Saw this

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/08/22/hawaii-tropical-storms-hone-gilda/

and it made me want to ask the Hawaii trip veterans here about whether

1) there is a "season" for sailing to Hawaii, and a season not to be en route either way... e.g., is this too late to ever be planning a return from Hawaii? I had thought the main issue would be the state of the Pacific High at different times of the year, and had not been thinking about hurricanes.

and separately,

2) what does one even do in a situation where on is out there and a big depression is wandering your way?

To be clear, my question is not generic "what do do if a hurricane approaching", taught in many sailing classes, but more about the specific circumstances of between the US and Hawaii -- for instance, if headed TO Hawaii, and a storm comes from behind, I might wonder if turning North might make sense, even if that might keep one in the "dangerous quadrant" because one would gain some advantage from it being unlikely the storm would turn North towards them (unlike if you head South, and maybe the storm turns South). If in fact I am even understanding correctly that the depressions tend to stay South of Hawaii.

Obviously there's a symmetric question if one is headed back from Hawaii. But maybe so much depends on the details of a specific storm track that the question is unanswerable.

Anyway, if I manage the trip I will definitely spring for someone ashore to provide weather forecasting/routing for me, precisely so I am not caught by surprise by things like this. But I wondered about strategy as I read the article, and I figured I'd ask the more experienced.

 

[Christian Williams]

People go in spring ( the Transpac is about July 1). June, or even May, works. Return in fall. Winter is too stormy.

Hurricanes outbound are the threat. They can and do turn north and cross the rhumb line, and more frequently than before they strike Hawaiian Islands. The threat going home, which requires a northing leg, is gales off San Francisco.

Modern weather forecasting is critical. Voyagers study surface analysis reports by satellite each day, and live by the daily updates and track predictions. There is always a hurricane paralleling the course, and they can turn sharply and erractically. Must avoid at all costs.

The position of the North Pacific high, ever changing and unpredictable, is tracked by Grib and SA reports. The position of the NPH dictates wind direction and strength and cheers or groans on board. I don't think it influences hurricanes much--hurricanes seem to be guided by water temperature, which is warmer and norther these days in mysterious plumes.

Yes, a weather guru ashore is important to have, since they have more sources of analysis and the leisure to contemplate it. Satellite telephone communication can offer a committee meeting on routing, a great comfort to any crew that has arranged for it.

 

[N.A.]

Thanks, Christian-

I had not really appreciated that one often/usually had storms/hurricanes wandering around to the South.

I had sort of been hoping to leave earlier and return earlier (ideally back in SF by early August or so, thus maybe leaving early/mid June). Is weather routing (and related schedule flexibility) essentially the key to making that work, or is that timeframe suboptimal and it is advisable to shift the whole plan later, so as to be more likely to hit OK weather?

Also, apologies for asking what may be obvious, but is there some great resource one goes to for this sort of information, like pilot charts or something?

 

[Christian Williams]

It's fun to download a free Grib viewer (Gridded Binary weather product) to view on the computer. Also, Surface Analysis charts. They take a little getting used to, which comes in handy later.

There are a lot of route planning products which world cruisers swear by, one being PredictWind. I started before their heyday, so never got on board, but nowadays that's certainly where I'd start.

I think the window for Hawaii is pretty wide, May to October, probably. I just like it warm.

 

[N.A.]

Thanks yet again. Downloaded PredictWind, which seems interesting (anyone in the SF bay area with opinions on SailFlow vs PredictWind for the local (in-bay and local coastal) areas, I am curious. Have been using Sailflow for a while.)

I'll explore the GRIBs; I think I actually did that years back and had forgotten about them entirely. I am pretty sure no local races allow paid things like PredictWind, at least during a race, and though I don't race so much as occasionally lurk far behind the actual competitors I'd still like to be able to do that appropriately, which I suspect means GRIBs for anything long enough that any pre-race paid information grows too long in the tooth.

Appreciated.

 

[bgary]

I use an app called WeatherTrack. Download the GRIBs using a map view, and then it shows predictions for wind, cloud-cover, precipitation, air-temp, etc in 3-hour increments for something like 36 hours. Pretty useful.