Newport to Ensenada Tragedy

[Sven]

In my experience, and in the experiences as expressed to me by the few expressive and candid nails-tough fishermen in my past, you might be surprised how often it jerks you awake. Many people doze and recover without ever knowing it. I know many proud people who claimed they NEVER fell asleep, only to confess that the watch alarm proved them wrong several times. People usually get away with it--but not often enough.

Exactly. Some/many commercial operators around here use them no matter how much the watch gripes about it because they do work.

Gambler was another recent (non-fatal) accident in our local waters where sleep seems to have been the culprit:

One piece of unfortunate news came out of the weekend. GAMBLER, a 65-ft tournament fisher and charter boat well-known in SoCal, ran hard aground on San Clemente Island early Sunday morning. Damage to the forward hull was significant, and the boat’s below deck spaces, including the engine room, were flooded. She’s back on the mainland now for evaluation of the damages. It appears that crew exhaustion is the preliminary cause of the accident, a circumstance that happens all too often. As a friend of mine said earlier today, “Most people have never been part of an operation where you’re working 22 hr days onboard a vessel for weeks/months on end. There comes a time where your body just takes over and shuts down. Occasionally that can be behind the wheel.” A lesson for us all …

That was from http://tinyurl.com/7jxrs5g



-Sven

 

[MarkA]

This is still just spectulation. All that the track shows is that the tracker hit the island. It is unlikley to me that the boat would break up that fast, into that small of pieces just by going aground on the north island. We sailed through the slot at about 7:30 or 8 sat morning. The swell was not that big. When "low speed chase" hit the rocks it was blowing 30 with very large waves and the boat remained mostly intact. My opinion is just spectulation aswell. All I know is, the most important thing is to be respectful of the skipper, crew and there loved ones.
On a brighter note, The Cimarron was first to finish and best corrected time in PHRF G for the 2nd year in a row!

The tracker was cruising 6.5 knots on a razor-straight line for more than three hours. Neither the speed, nor the course, deviated from the time they started the motor and engaged Otto, until about a minute before its last transmission. One last blip, then it sank. It was delivered there by a 37-foot hull under diesel power and guided by a diligent auto pilot. It did not float there attached to debris.

15,000 lb displacement, 6.5 knots, instantaneous deceleration to zero. 6-8 foot swells. Hunter construction.

It's tragic. But there's little evidence supporting the contortions people are going through trying to place the blame outside the boat. It's hard to discount Spot. As many have said, "Occam's Razor."

I don't mean to sound insensitive, because my heart truly goes out to all friends and family. I lost six entire crews of commercial fishing friends in the late 70's and early 80's--six men died as a result of this exact problem. 36 people in six years, in all. One boat from a sleeping watch, and five from weather. I remember that pain, and I feel this. But it is what it is.

 

[mherrcat]

What is a "watch alarm?" Sounds like a glorified kitchen timer.

 

[Sven]

What is a "watch alarm?" Sounds like a glorified kitchen timer.

Yup, but it is more like a snooze alarm in that it resets. You get a flashing light when it is time to show that you are awake. When you fail to show that you are awake in time it buzzes you awake. If you don't wake up or fell overboard it sets off an alarm that wakes the rest of the crew.



-Sven

 

[MarkA]

Yup, but it is more like a snooze alarm in that it resets. You get a flashing light when it is time to show that you are awake. When you fail to show that you are awake in time it buzzes you awake. If you don't wake up or fell overboard it sets off an alarm that wakes the rest of the crew.

-Sven

And then you're fired!

 

[Glyn Judson]

Going aground as opposed to getting hit.

All, I may be repeating whats already been posited but help me here, I'm trying to visualize hitting the rocks in our boat at 6.5 knots with four aboard and all being lost as compared to a ship colliding with us. My problem is that it seems that there would be a heck of a jolt upon impacting the island with everyone and a lot of stuff getting thrown around but to imagine all four perishing in a situatuion something like that stretches the imagination. Consider then the circumstance of crossing the path of a tanker or container ship on the exact course as indicated on that chart posted yesterday and I can easily visualize the boat being turned into splinters as if it had been run through a blender as one person was quoted as saying. Is it not just as likely that a collision at sea could have occurred on that precise course, but prior to that ill-fated sailboat reaching the island? Either way one views, it still remains a tragedy but I simply thought I'd share my puzzlement as to how it might have happened with you. I wonder if the Mexican or US authorities working together have had the chance to inspect the possible site where the boat could/would have hit the rocks. Surely there would be some trace of debris entangled in the boulders. That not even one man couldn't have made it ashore stretches the imagination. That said, having never seen the island, this is only what I envision in my mind. Maybe there are others far more familiar with the area who could share their thoughts. Regards, Glyn Judson, E31 hull #55, Marina del Rey CA

 

[MarkA]

All, I may be repeating whats already been posited but help me here, I'm trying to visualize hitting the rocks in our boat at 6.5 knots with four aboard and all being lost as compared to a ship colliding with us. My problem is that it seems that there would be a heck of a jolt upon impacting the island with everyone and a lot of stuff getting thrown around but to imagine all four perishing in a situatuion something like that stretches the imagination. Consider then the circumstance of crossing the path of a tanker or container ship on the exact course as indicated on that chart posted yesterday and I can easily visualize the boat being turned into splinters as if it had been run through a blender as one person was quoted as saying. Is it not just as likely that a collision at sea could have occurred on that precise course, but prior to that ill-fated sailboat reaching the island? Either way one views, it still remains a tragedy but I simply thought I'd share my puzzlement as to how it might have happened with you. I wonder if the Mexican or US authorities working together have had the chance to inspect the possible site where the boat could/would have hit the rocks. Surely there would be some trace of debris entangled in the boulders. That not even one man couldn't have made it ashore stretches the imagination. That said, having never seen the island, this is only what I envision in my mind. Maybe there are others far more familiar with the area who could share their thoughts. Regards, Glyn Judson, E31 hull #55, Marina del Rey CA

Glyn,

The Spot tracks ended at a shear cliff that drops straight down to a 100 foot ledge under water. It appears the boat was headed directly at that cliff at hull speed, and probably surfing the reported 6-8 foot swells as it instantaneously decelerated to zero. Also consider that the motor and propeller probably continued under near full power until seawater drown the air intake--that could have deflected the boat on a different vector, or continued to grind it in the rocks. If it deflected slightly to port, it would have been trapped at the base of that small spit, and continued to be ground to pieces from two different sides--while under power for at least a few seconds. With 6-8 foot swells rolling in.

I think the Spot track rules out any ship collision before the tracker reached the island. The tracker was delivered at a steady speed, along a straight line. Nothing could have drifted that fast or that straight. Remember, the speed and direction, and precision of steering remained unchanged for more than three hours. Otto delivered that tracker to the island.

The guy who died of head and neck trauma was wearing no shirt. Vee berth? Where were the other two? If on deck, they would have gone over the side. I don't believe there is any way they could have scaled those cliffs--especially at dark, in 58 degree water, after a traumatic impact.

I don't know what happened, but I think the Spot tracker rules out a lot of the early speculation.

 

[MarkA]

I can't tell if this is from the port or starboard side, but I suspect starboard. If so, that blue streak above the boot stripe, which is bottom paint, was created as the hull scraped against something traveling from front to back, bottom to top. This is consistent with the hull rolling downward as the boat moves forward against the rocks. If this is indeed the starboard side, then this suggests the bow could have been trapped in the crotch between the northern most spit, and the cliff where the tracks ended.

Of course, lots of other things could probably explain this, too.

I'm no accident reconstructionist, but I've hired plenty to help me sort out product liability lawsuits.

Edit: After looking at the intact hull pics from before the race, I'm almost certain this is from the starboard side.

 

[toddster]

I can't really tell on my laptop screen, with the thickness of the plotted line, but it looks like there might be a slight overall set to the east on that course. i.e. Otto might have been steering to a heading that was originally safe, rather than a waypoint. Of course with a bit of effort, and a real chart, one could actually plot the positions and find out.

 

[MarkA]

I can't really tell on my laptop screen, with the thickness of the plotted line, but it looks like there might be a slight overall set to the west on that course. i.e. Otto might have been steering to a heading that was originally safe, rather than a waypoint. Of course with a bit of effort, and a real chart, one could actually plot the positions and find out.

Good eye, but no! I hadn't noticed this, but they changed course at 1106 (spot 35) and headed more east. Otherwise, the track line seems straight from 1106 until impact.

Edit: Their earlier course would have cleared the islands.

Edit: So, it seems somebody moved a waypoint or advanced to a different one than was originally selected.

 

[Sven]

but to imagine all four perishing in a situatuion something like that stretches the imagination.

Glyn, remember when Nancy and I left the anchor on Santa Barbara Island ? Throughout the night I had visions of us getting ground up against those cliffs, just like the Aegean. Santa Barbara Island at the landing is rough, but not as rough as the cliffs where the Aegean track stopped. There was no question in my mind that neither Nancy or I would have been likely to survive as the waves and swells shot foam 30 feet in the air every 10-15 seconds, just like the reports from other sailors in the N->E race.

Remember when you tried to get back on Dawn Treader and how tough that was, and you had steps on the rudder in a calm harbor if I remember correctly. Now try to imagine climbing a skin-cutting cliff face in the dark with 6' swells piling on top of you and up into the air. Nancy and I wouldn't have been taken by surprise and we did not motor into the Santa Barbara Island cliff, but we would have been ground up too if the anchor rode had chafed through and the engine hadn't started or the prop had been wrapped on the cut rode.

Hollywood makes us think anything is survivable but that is far from the truth. Once we get out of our protected "civilization" things are much rougher and we're much more fragile than we think.

Just my $0.02 tendered in SEK.



-Sven

 

[Guy Stevens]

Egg Shells and other observations

There is insufficient data at this point for me to even guess at what happened out there before during or after this accident.

However a couple of observations:
Surfers die from a combination of head trauma and drowning all the time and they are on a beach.

The boats that we love are really egg shells when compared to rocks and the waves that break on them. Yes we have photos and stories of boats sitting high and dry with all of their hardware removed, but they were for the most part washed high while floating over the rocks, and then dropped.

I have seen a few of these boats myself, most of them have the unseen side completely destroyed. If the boat is between rocks and the surf there is little left of it in short order. Imagine picking up your thousands of pounds of boat and dropping it repeatedly on a parking lot. Something like every 8 seconds for an hour or so. It does break up into little pieces fast.

So while we are waiting on some more hard data to come in on this tragedy, rather than guessing at what happened, lets talk about what can make passages safer and prevent any of the incidents that could have been the cause of this.

Do you wear a digital watch with a loud alarm offshore? I wear a Casio G-shock with a countdown timer set to 7 minutes. Every seven minutes it goes off. It is loud enough that I have always done an entire sweep of the horizon when it goes off. Is 7 minutes the best time to set it for? Probably not. A complete sweep of the horizon should be done more like every 2 minutes if we are seeking to avoid a collision with a cargo vessel.

A little light Wednesday Morning Math stretch for our brains explains why.

1.17*sqr(he)=distance in NM of Sight (He stands for height of eye) This gives you the distance to your horizon.

Lets say our height of eye was 7 feet for arguments sake. (What is yours on your boat? Standing in the cockpit looking out the dodger?)

1.17*sqr(7)=roughly 3 miles (Our horizon is about 3 miles away when our eye is 7 feet above the surface of the water).

Lets say a cargo ship is steaming towards us at 25 knots, we are ripping along with a bone in our teeth at say 6 knots. Lets also say we are headed right for each other. How long would it be from the time I saw the ship till we collided?

25 knots (Speed of ship) + 6 Knots (wow we are really sailing well aren't we!) = 31 Knots of boat speed for a head on collision 25 knots for the cargo ship 6 knots for your boat headed directly for one another.

31 knots / 60 minutes is about .5 of a mile in a minute. That means that you are about 1/2 a mile closer to each other every minute.

That means from the time that you can see them (Yes that would be Hull Up on the water) till the time that you hit them would be:

3 miles (The distance to our horizon) / .5 (knots per minute of decreasing distance) is about 6 minutes.


Now there are things that effect this and make the calculation more complex. Height of the object above the water, Height of the waves (Both a positive and negative effect), weather conditions, light refraction and reflection over the horizon during the day, and at night; just to name a few.

I have purposely made the equation easier than the complete system is to get us ALL thinking about it, and people not running away screaming Math!!!!!!


So in the time between my alarms going off on my watch I could have completely missed the boat headed toward me and been run down with a minute left to spare. Exhaustion on watch is a very real cause of a lot of collisions, allisions, and other bad things.

Guy

 

[MarkA]

For me, the guessing process--particularly as it is playing out over at SA--has been instructive. It places ones's self in the deck shoes of the ill-fated crew, and forces one to search for possible errors that could have led to (a) being chewed up by a cargo vessel, (b) hitting an island, (c) succumbing to CO or other poisoning, (d) allowing an entire crew to sleep underway, (e) drowning after some sort of collision, (f) alien abduction. More importantly, the placement of these issues on the table forces one to search for ways to avoid whatever errors were made. In the process, we get to hear ideas, anecdotes and solutions that others have used, intend to use, or whatever. Obviously we're not going to produce a Coast Guard worthy investigation report, but we'll become a little safer and more prepared in the meantime.

Ironically, it was this pointless guessing game that brought Guy forward with his lookout alarm timing. See, the process works!

 

[Sven]

allisions, and other bad things.

I just learned a new word :0

That's a good sign.



-Sven

 

[MarkA]

I just learned a new word :0

That's a good sign.



-Sven

Me too! And I'm gonna use it.

 

[Seth]

Right

Agreed. The track and speed are consistent, so I think the tracker tells the tale. We don't of course know how or why the boat maintained this course right until impact, and certainly don't wish to impune the crew of the Aegean-we don't know what happened on board. My point is simply that it seems clear they were not run down by another vessel.

Very tragic and the best we can hope for is for the community to learn from this and prevent a repeat.

Sail safe everyone!

S

 

[Sven]

Loren, maybe ...

Loren, Maybe this thread should be merged with the longer one that Jeff started a few days ago ? It might make sense to leave it under cruising and racing since it is bigger than just So. Cal. regional news ?

The only reason for suggesting it is that this is a topic where there should be a lot of interest from the perspective of learning from it.



-Sven

 

[Martin King]

Well, there is likely to be a sampling error that skews the perception of the wreck. If the boat sank on the cliff face, only small buoyant pieces would float away to be found in the debris field. The bulk of the boat may well be intact below the wreck site.

The most likely scenario, probably with the skipper still aboard.

 

[Loren Beach]

Loren, Maybe this thread should be merged with the longer one that Jeff started a few days ago ? It might make sense to leave it under cruising and racing since it is bigger than just So. Cal. regional news ?

The only reason for suggesting it is that this is a topic where there should be a lot of interest from the perspective of learning from it.
-Sven

OK. Merged. You are right about having two threads in different places with pretty much the same narrative and focus.
:nerd:
Loren

ps: back about 12 or 15 years, the Admiral and I did a delivery together to help bring a Cal 34-3 down the Washington coast to Astoria... Having never been out on the ocean for an overnighter on a sail boat, she was a little aprehensive about being ...out of sight and reach of the safety of land....

So it was a sunny morning when we rounding Tatoosh Is and headed south - long swells with no big wind waves and just enough breeze to tempt us to fly the genoa and then surrender to reality and fire up the Westerbeke again. Watching those big gentle swells crash against the rugged basalt cliffs about a mile away, with the spray shooting up a hundred feet into the morning air, she thoughtfully sez "this is too close, let's get out to sea a lot farther!"



Five of us on board, so an easy watch rotation with two always on watch together.

 

[toddbrsd]

And the Results are In.

http://media.ussailing.org/Latest_News/2012/USS_Newport_061212.htm