Newport to Ensenada Tragedy

[Seth]

Nothing new here

Thanks for posting this report. Of course, this was very clear after the tracking data was released-they aimed at this point from a long ways out. The unanswered question is why did they not alter course as they approached the Island, who was on watch (or not on watch), etc.....

The real lessons of this tragedy are still not yet known, but we can infer that unless the entire crew was incapacitated somehow, there were some errors in navigation and seamanship which led to this.

I do not wish to impune any of the crew, and of course this is speculation (albeit educated speculation), but even if I am wrong it is a very likely scenario, and we can view it as a call to action to be more vigilant on deck and navigate more frequently and accurately.

Safe sailing,

 

[MarkA]

It's tragic, but I think it's clear what happened. As I posted here or elsewhere months ago, there was a slight course change when they were abeam of Point Loma. They had been on a straight and steady course for hours, which would have cleared the island. Then the course inexplicably veered onto another straight and constant vector toward what was probably the end waypoint outside Ensenada. I think I measured a 2-3 degree direction change about 1.5 hours from the island. This put the island directly in their path.

Why did this happen? I'll bet my GPS that somebody inadvertently advanced to the next waypoint. The course change was slight and not likely to be noticed. Otto did his duty without question, and whomever was on watch was either watching the backs of his eyelids, or simply not scanning the horizon. No CO poisoning, no mass food poisoning, no alien abduction, no prior ship strike, and no chasing a heading while succumbing to set and drift. It's pretty obvious one of the guys was in the v-berth when they struck land, but I haven't seen any clues about the location of the others.

What amazes me is that people still cling to the ship strike theory, and that US Sailing took this long to release this incomplete, but obvious, conclusion. I'm really interested in seeing the Coast Guard report.

I like to have faith in my plotted routes, and I trust Otto to do as he's told. But I watch both like a hawk, and scan the horizon with binoculars every few minutes. After the Aegean, I added AIS to the arsenal, and I started setting up and activating my RADAR's guard zones. I've learned just a little more from this tragedy, and I hope I'm not alone.

Be careful out there!

 

[Loren Beach]

Yet Another news report

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/aegean-358497-race-panel.html

They use the catch-all phrase "ran aground".
I would guess that "collided with a rock wall" might be a more accurate.
We have many steep-to basalt cliff faces in the NW that face the ocean, and many of them continue right on downwards. Fifty feet and more to a rocky bottom.
With any swell running, the impact and subsequent wave forces might well leave the wreckage to back wash and settle deeply into waters that would be very difficult to dive on most days of the year.

LB

 

[Pokey]

One thing I haven't seen discussed is the chance that alcohol was involved.

Would imagine that the bodies' alcohol levels were checked. I've read nothing mentioning an absence or abundance, which seems strange.

But it's hard for me to imagine entering the cruising class, in a regatta known as much for its partying as its sailing, without significant quantities of libations on board.

And one certainly doesn't need to be over the legal limit to be lulled to sleep by a regular swell and the purr of a diesel.

It's easy to imagine two guys on deck falling asleep after a couple, three beers. Experienced skipper goes down first so he can take the late watch. Two newbs are left on deck. Talk trails off. One guy nods. The watch cap soldiers on for a while, but eventually joins his shipmate in slumber. Remember, the wind had shut off hours earlier and the night was, by all accounts, a particularly pleasant one.

There've been plenty of unsubstantiated theories as to what happened out there.

This is just another guess, but at least to me, it seems more plausible than most.

And if correct, it provides a lesson that sailors don't want to hear: that drinking while sailing increases the risk of accident.

I like a cold beer as much as the next guy, but I've never understood why our sport is so intertwined with drinking. Tradition, I guess, and four more souls lost at sea isn't going to change that.

</SPAN>

 

[windjunkee]

For those of us down here in the Southern California racing community, the N-E race has always been an outlier. Its kinda like the way alcoholics view New Years Eve or St. Patricks Day - a day for amateurs. N - E attracts hundreds of boats, only a handful of which have seasoned race crews. The vast majority of participants are in the 'cruising' classes. The cruising classes primarily consist of boats who don't regularly participate in off shore races and the majority of night time sailing experience consists more often with the return trip from a one or two hour sunset cruise than actual passage making. The party atmosphere of the race is what attracts most of the participants to this race.
I don't disagree with the motor use during these events prone to light winds. I think it keeps the racers a little closer together and provides some assurance that a cut off will accommodate the finish of the majority of participants. I don't agree though, that auto-pilot use should be permitted during full crew racing. Simply put, if you're on auto pilot, at night, with a chill in the air, the most likely position for a crewman on watch is with his back against the bulkhead, eyes trained behind the boat and legs propped up comfortably in the cockpit. Being behind the wheel forces you to have your eyes forward and outside the boat, being aware of your surroundings and alert to things happening around you.

I was in this year's N - E race. It was a very clear night, though I don't recall a bright moon. Nevertheless, I could see the ship traffic. I could see the navigation lights on South Coronado. I could see the lights of the competitors around us. Certainly, even without a moon, with eyes forward and the phosflourecence in the water, waves on a rock face could have been seen from a mile or more to seaward.

If any lesson can be learned from this, it should be that one should be diligent about navigation when plotting way points on a GPS. Very few of the recreation-grade GPS units will warn you that a route that has been plotted will take you through a land mass. Having paper charts, confirming your route from multiple sources and rechecking your work should be just as, if nor more, important than figuring out the coordinates. Either they plotted Nor Cor as a way point and put the point directly on the island, or they plotted their waypoint for the Ensenada approach, never thinking to check if their course took them into a rock wall along the way. One thing seems to be conclusive - They turned on the engine, turned on the autopilot and took their eyes off the ball.

Jim McCone
Voice of Reason E-32-2 Hull #134
Redondo Beach, CA

 

[Seth]

Well said Jim

As for discussing possible alcohol use, I think many of us are trying to be sensitive to the families of those lost, but it would not be an unreasonable assumption.

I also am guessing that they may have quit racing due to the light winds, and were motoring down to the party as many do.To me, this better explains the scenario of someone falling asleep, and possibly have enjoyed some adult beverages.

Even though the "cause" of the event is clear-they motored straight into the corner of the island, we are all still speculating as to HOW it happened.

I am very unhappy with the Coast Guard report/findings. There was nothing in that report that was not obvious to everyone within a few days of the accident. I think they should have waited until more info (including toxicology of the remains) was processed, or in any case, until a more relevant finding of facts could be issued.

Anyway, very sad

Sail safe,

S

 

[tenders]

Gosh, I think the conclusion from your observations Jim is that there is no substitute for maintaining an alert watch, perhaps the most fundamental rule of seamanship for hundreds if not thousands of years. Maintaining vigilance around one's chosen navigation method, whether that is GPS, celestial, ded reckoning, or wave action a la the Polynesians, is desirable but ultimately error-prone and thus a secondary takeaway.

 

[Morgan Stinemetz]

N-E Race comment...

Well put, Jim. It is in sharp focus.

 

[MarkA]

I am very unhappy with the Coast Guard report/findings. There was nothing in that report that was not obvious to everyone within a few days of the accident. I think they should have waited until more info (including toxicology of the remains) was processed, or in any case, until a more relevant finding of facts could be issued.

S

There's a Coast Guard report???

 

[toddster]

I believe the recent news was that the race organization put out a report. The coast guard has as yet made no comment.

 

[windjunkee]

I saw the findings submitted in a brief statement from US Sailing. I understand the full report which includes the evidence and analysis is not coming out until August. I believe it will likely be as comprehensive as the report issued about the Chicago-Mac race a few years ago.

I understand that the report relied heavily on the spot tracker. I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of that device. Questions have been raised to me, though, about the tracker. One person said it looked conveniently straight. I responded that it broadcasts its position every 10 minutes. The program draws a straight line between position reports so it wouldn't likely be a wiggly line. The next comment was that the tracker file could have been manipulated and it is curious that the last position report is essentially directly at the island. Okay, I said, but what motive would there be to manipulate that data? If someone comes up with a plausible answer to that, I'll listen. Finally, the last comment was that the debris field had pieces so small its hard to believe it came from a boat impacting rocks at 6.5 knots. My response is "it was a Hunter, not an Ericson."

Still, it would seem very helpful to the investigation to locate the keel or engine, or both. They shouldn't be too far from the point of impact I wouldn't think, so its curious that they haven't been located yet.


Jim McCone
Voice of Reason, E-32-2 Hull #134
Redondo Beach, CA

 

[Randy Rutledge]

I did a delivery of a 1964 Chris Craft Sail Yacht 35 ( yes they made sailboats) from Cape Canaveral, FL to St Simon, GA. There are markers 15 nm offshore along this stretch of shoreline. I had a list of each possible point of entry to ICW and it’s outer marker and had the coordinates of all offshore markers that we would pass. We were 20 nm off shore most of the trip but I still watched Latitude and when passing near one of the markers was aware of how far east I was of it. If we don’t study the charts and just enter a couple of waypoints we might end up in a McDonald’s parking lot along the way or in this case much worse. SeaClear or Open CPN are good tools for prep while at home or on the boat.

We had four on the boat and used six hour watches with two on deck at all times. Also the watches were most and least experienced teamed and then second most and second least teamed. We allowed one to relax while one stood behind the wheel and steered. This worked well with swapping off between the two on the watch team. This was only a 38 hour trip and the last six hours in 8+ foot seas, so staying awake on watch was not a problem as we were holding on.

We rely on our toys: Plotters and GPS while leave our brain at home. As stated by others SOBER and DILIGENT. When the last dock line is secure or the anchor is secure and anchor guard is on then let’s have a few cold ones, as Captain Ron says ”make mine a margarita”.

 

[MarcusJtown]

I'll just make one comment as to the size of peices that were found. I assisted in a rescue off Beavertail in Jamestown a couple weeks ago. A 32' sportfisher had lost power and drifted into the rocks.

Before:

After:

That's not a sheer cliff, and those waves were maybe 8'. That bow section is the biggest piece that was left besides the engines, and the only reason it's still there is because the tide went out before it was destroyed.